A prediction market on Circle's Arc network, settled in USDC.
Arc Markets lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Each market asks a question with two possible answers — YES or NO — and you buy shares in the outcome you expect. If you are right, each share you hold pays out 1 USDC when the market resolves. If you are wrong, it pays nothing.
The price of a share is therefore also a probability. A YES share trading at 0.65 USDC means the market collectively puts the odds at roughly 65%.
There is no order book and no counterparty to match against. Each market has an automated market maker holding a pool of YES and NO shares, and the price comes from the ratio between them. Buying YES removes YES shares from the pool, which raises the YES price and lowers the NO price by the same amount. The two always sum to 1.
This means you can always trade, at any size, without waiting for someone to take the other side — but large trades move the price against you. The estimate shown before you confirm already accounts for that.
Some questions have several candidate answers. These are presented as a single event with one row per outcome, but underneath each row is its own independent YES/NO market. As a result the outcome percentages within an event are separate market prices and will not necessarily add up to exactly 100%.
Every market has a resolution date and a named resolver — the address permitted to report the result. A market cannot be resolved before its resolution date, cannot be resolved twice, and cannot be resolved by anyone else. Many markets also list a resolution source, which is the reference used to determine the answer.
Once resolved, holders of the winning outcome can redeem each share for 1 USDC. Losing shares become worthless. You do not have to wait for resolution to exit — you can sell at the current market price at any time before then.
The first trade you make on a market requires a one-time approval transaction, which authorizes the market to move the USDC you are spending. After that, buying and selling are a single transaction each.
This deployment runs on Arc testnet. The USDC is a test token with no monetary value, the markets are for demonstration, and the network may be reset without notice — which would clear all markets and balances. Do not treat positions here as an investment.
See the Terms of Use for the rules of using this interface, and the Privacy Policy for what data it does and does not collect.